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​Real price of Kazakhstan oil and whether Kashagan will be re-started - expert's opinion

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Image 0The pioneer of Amangeldy gas field Marat Mailibaev (on photo) talks about the real price of Kazakhstan oil, the issues that Kazakhstan would face during the process of reduction of oil prices and whether Kashagan will be re-started.

Mailibaev noted that system mistakes in geological exploration are connected with inaccuracy of the approach chosen in the '90s when the state distanced itself from financing geological researches by selling it to investors. As the result in past years the link between scientific approach and direct practical development of this or that field have been lost. In the majority of countries in the world geological exploration is carried out at the expense of budgetary funds, the expert emphasized. Currently in Kazakhstan the main discoveries of new fields occur at the depth of 600-700 meters. The fields at such low depths in the world have been investigated long time ago.

He said that Mangyshlak is one of well explored sites, though Ustyurt plateau has not been explored yet. In his opinion, there is no crude on the coasts of Alakol Lake, as well as in East Kazakhstan. At the same time the close attention should be paid to the western part of the republic and Turgai depression.

According to expert the real reserves of oil that could be recovered in the republic make 3, 5 billion tons, he estimated the ceiling at 12 billion.

Kashagan at current oil prices is absolutely unpromising, considers the geologist. Initial assessment of its stocks were assumed at the level of 7 billion tons, today it is clear that there will be no more than 700 million tons. Profitability of production of Kashagan oil in the conditions of sharp falling of oil prices has been brought to nill. At the same time huge money has been spent.

"Who is guilty? I won't answer this question. The secret police NKVD (People's Commissariat for Internal Affairs) is on alert. Personally I always was against the exploration and development of oil operations in the Caspian Sea. We should be fishing there. Fish won against oil" – said Mailibaev.

He is convinced that investors are interested in the longest procrastination of the start of oil production on the field. Since the price environment is obviously not advantage to Kashagan.

In general his forecast for oil prices are unfavourable. Its cost will be falling even further. In the long term the oil from fuel will turn only into chemical raw materials, the geologist is convinced.

He disproved a popular belief of a too high prime cost of crude. He noted that the average cost is $11. In Kazakhstan the oil well with a productivity of 6-7 tons is considered productive, he noticed.

It also dispelled the opinion of bad quality of Kazakhstan oil. According to him, our oil is as good as the light Siberian crude.

In Kazakhstan oil, according to the expert, on average there are 380 components and it is perfectly suitable for production of mineral industrial oils, for aviation engines. Its aromatics influences human body extremely well and has useful medicinal properties.

As for Amangeldy field, the pioneer of which is considered Mailibaev, the discovery of that field became significant and forced Tashkent to soften positions on transfer of gas to the southern capital of Kazakhstan.

The Amangeldy field supplies 300 thousand cubic meters of gas per day, and Almaty needs 1,5 million. Therefore the gasification issue of the South of Kazakhstan is still open, noted the expert.

Source: Translated by Zeena Urynbassarova

August 18 2015, 10:44

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