According to Grigoriy Marchenko, Chairman of National Bank, if Kazakhstan doesn't increase retirement age, its pension system may turn bankrupt soon or late.
"It's a matter of time. After 60 years we will run out of oil or very few oil will be left. According to our data, the peak of oil production will be in 2021-2035. Then production volumes will decrease," Marchenko explained his opinion. He also noted a contantly growing load on budget:
"In the last decade life expectancy has grown by 3 years. Within the next ten years the figure may grow further. The volume of pensions in payment is stably increasing. Thus, budget expenses will be gradually growing," he added.
The head banker said Kazakhstan is in better situation in terms of oil production than other countries:
"The peak of oil production in Russia, Norway, UK, USA is over now. But Kazakhstan will enjoy it not earlier than after 10 years."
Average life expectancy after retirement in Kazakhstan is 12.5 years for men and 20.4 years for women, he emphasized.
"If we reduce maternal and child death rates, improve healthcare system, especially in rural areas, then average life expectancy in Kazakhstan will grow by 4 years," believes the head of National Bank.
Marchenko concluded that over the history of country's defined contribution pension system, i.e. 14.5 years, the earning power of pension funds has been exceeding the accumulated inflation rate by 1.5 times.
WKT citing zakon.kz